Editor's Note: Each year, DTN publishes our choices for the Top 10 ag news stories of the year as selected by DTN analysts, editors and reporters. This year, we're counting them down from Dec. 18 to Dec. 31. On Jan. 1, 2025, we will look at some of the runners-up for the year. Today, we continue the countdown with No. 8: the U.S. cattle market's performance through the year, influenced by slow herd expansion, drought, heavier slaughter weights and even a cattle pest in Mexico.

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2024 was again another wild ride for the cattle complex as cattlemen have endured yet another momentous year. Words like "unprecedented" and "historic" are commonly used in various market stories, and while we as people may have a tendency to unknowingly grow dull to the words themselves and the reality in which they affect the market, the cattle market's prices are the proof in the pudding.

Whether you looked at fed cash cattle prices, feeder cattle prices or even cull cow prices, new record highs were achieved at some point in time during the last calendar year. For the fed cash cattle market, we saw prices initially peak in late June/early July when Southern live cattle traded for $190 to $191, and Northern dressed cattle prices topped at $313.

But just last week, near mid-December, the Southern Plains exceeded that threshold, as live cattle traded for $191 to $192, creating yet another new market high for the industry.

Then, to shift gears and talk about the demand in the feeder cattle complex, it's nearly unfathomable to think that except for a short time in January, the CME feeder cattle index has bounced in a narrow trading range between $240 and $262. During the last cattle cycle's peak back in 2014, the CME feeder cattle index reached $240 but was able to maintain that level for only two months -- far shorter than a whole year like the market did in 2024.

If you would have told me, during the market's lull in the last cycle, that in 2024 cull cow prices would have reached $2,000 at times, I would have rolled my eyes in utter disbelief, as bred, first-calf heifers brought close to $1,500 to $1,600 at the time.

And while these record-high anomalies played out, there were plenty of other unprecedented factors that affected the market through 2024 as well. It would be remiss of me not to remind you that this past January, the Cattle Inventory report showed a record low of just 28.2 million beef cows. That was the lowest beef cow herd inventory recorded since the report began back in 1972 -- 52 years ago.

But, at the same time, USDA's Cattle on Feed report continued to share near-record-high inventories -- which seem to be two factors that could hardly coexist.

However, with the changes that our industry has seen during the last year, and some that even began to take shape decades ago, cattle today possess the genetics to grow bigger and spend more days on feed. That was highly incentivized by feedlots, as feed was cheap this past year, and the dollars required to replace the fed cattle with feeder cattle were exuberant.

Before the news spread of the New World screwworm being detected in southern Mexico, which halted all cattle imports from Mexico into the United States until further notice, feeder cattle imports from Mexico totaled 1,229,957 head, which is 6% more than a year ago -- and undoubtedly affected on-feed totals as well.

To be exact, November's Cattle on Feed report shared that the total number of cattle and calves on feed amounted to 11,986,000 head (steady with a year ago), the total number of cattle placed during the month of October amounted to 2,286,000 head (5% higher than the previous year) and marketings totaled 1,845,000 head (5% higher than the previous year).

It's worth noting that there have only been three times since 2015 that on-feed totals for Nov. 1 have exceeded 11.9 million head, and that was in 2020, 2023 and now in 2024. But in understanding the drought situation in the countryside, an increase in placements, which consequently affects the total number of cattle on feed nationwide, makes perfect sense. The next Cattle on Feed report is scheduled to be released Friday, Dec. 20, and the report is expected to showcase lighter projections for all three categories. (Check out DTNPF.com for report numbers and analysis after the report comes out.)

As I mentioned before, you may be becoming accustomed to seeing words like "historic" or "unprecedented" or even "record high," but in this past year's market, that's exactly what we saw. And as the days of 2024 dwindle and we get closer to opening our 2025 calendars, I believe that the market's bullish fundamentals will largely keep prices elevated through this upcoming year. From the most grassroots perspective possible, we know that our cow herd inventory remains alarmingly depleted. So, as long as demand remains relentless, cattlemen should be in for another prosperous year ahead.

For more stories from the year about cattle prices, check out:

-- "Feeder Cattle Prices May Skyrocket as APHIS Restricts Mexican Cattle Imports due to New World Screwworm," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- "Feeder Cattle Prices Trade Higher at Superior's Corn Belt Classic," https://www.dtnpf.com/….

-- "Are Bigger Carcass Weights Really What the Industry Needs," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

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More countdown stories:

-- See No. 10 story, "2024 Was Year of Labor Unrest at US and Canada Rail and Shipping Ports," at https://www.dtnpf.com/…

-- See No. 9 story, "'Over-the-Top' Dicamba Product Registrations Vacated," https://www.dtnpf.com/…

ShayLe Stewart can be reached at shayle.stewart@dtn.com

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